NCCR Climate II- III Publications

2011

Erdin, R., Frei, C. and Künsch, H.R. (submitted): Data transformation and uncertainty in geostatistical combination of radar and rain gauges. Journal of Hydrometeorology.

Fischer, A.M., Weigel, A.P., Buser, C.M., Knutti, R., Künsch, H.R., Liniger, M.A., Schär, C. and Appenzeller, C. (2011): Climate Change Projections for Switzerland based on a Bayesian multi-model approach. International Journal of Climatology. doi: 10.1002/joc.3396

Hirschi, M., Stöckli, S., Dubrovsky, M., Spirig, C., Calanca, P., Rotach, M.W., Fischer, A.M., Duffy, B. and Samietz, J. (2011): Downscaling climate change scenarios for apple pest and disease modeling in Switzerland. Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 2, 493-529.

Hirschi, M., Seneviratne, S., Alexandrov, V., Boberg, F., Boroneant, C., Christensen, O., Formayer, H., Orlowsky, B. and Stepanek, P. (2011): Observational evidence for soil-moisture impact on hot extremes in southeastern Europe. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 4, No. 1, 17?21

Mason, S. J., Tippett, M. K., Weigel, A. P., Goddard, L. and Rajaratnam, B. (2011): Reply to "Comment of Conditional Exceedance Probabilities''. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 139, 3325-3327.

Mueller, B., Seneviratne, S., Jimenez, C., Corti, T., Hirschi, M., Balsamo, G., Ciais, P., Dirmeyer, P., Fisher, J., Guo, Z., Jung, M., Maignan, F., McCabe, M., Reichle, R., Reichstein, M., Rodell, M., Sheffield, J., Teuling, A., Wang, K., Wood, E. and Zhang, Y. (2011): Evaluation of global observations-based evapotranspiration datasets and IPCC AR4 simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 38, No. L06402

 
Mueller, B., Hirschi, M. and Seneviratne, S. (2011): New diagnostic estimates of variations in terrestrial water storage based on ERA-Interim data. Hydrol. Process, Vol. 25, No. 7, 996-1008 

Weigel, A. P. and Mason, S. J. (2011): The Generalized Discrimination Score for ensemble forecasts. Monthly Weather Review Vol. 139, No. 9, 3069-3074.

2010

Calanca, P., Bolius, D., Weigel, A. P. and Liniger, M. A. (2010): Application of long-range weather forecasts to agricultural decision problems in Europe. J. Agricultural Science , Vol. 149, 15-22

Ceppi, P., Scherrer, S. C., Fischer, A. M. and Appenzeller, C. (2010): Revisiting Swiss temperature trends 1959-2008. International Journal Of Climatology. DOI: joc.2260 10.1002

Della-Marta, P. M., Liniger, M. A., Appenzeller, C., Bresch, D. N., Köllner-Heck, P. and Muccione, V. (2010): Improved estimates of the European winter wind storm climate and the risk of reinsurance loss using climate models. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 49, 2092-2120 

Fundel, F., Walser, A., Liniger, M. A., Frei, C. and Appenzeller, C. (2010): Calibrated Precipitation Forecasts for a Limited-Area Ensemble Forecast System Using Reforecasts. Mon. Weather Rev., Vol. 138, No. 1, 176-189

Scherrer, S. C. (2010): Present-day interannual variability of surface climate in CMIP3 models and its relation to the amplitude of future warming. International Journal Of Climatology

Schiemann, R., Erdin, R., Willi, M., Frei, C., Berenguer, M. and Sempere-Torres, D. (2010): Geostatistical radar rain-raingauge combination with nonparametric correlograms: methodological considerations and application in Switzerland. Hydrology and Earth System Science Discussion, Vol. 7, 6925-6979

Schiemann, R., Liniger, M. A. and Frei, C. (2010): Reduced-space optimal interpolation of daily rain-gauge precipitation in Switzerland. J. Geophys. Res., Vol. 115, No. D1410

Weigel, A. P., Knutti, R., Liniger, M. A. and Appenzeller, C. (2010): Risks of model weighting in multi-model climate projections. J. Clim. Vol. 23, 4175-4191

Wüest, M., Frei, C., Altenhoff, A., Hagen, M., Litschi, M. and Schär, C. (2010): A gridded hourly precipitation dataset for Switzerland using rain-gauge analysis and radar-based disaggregation. Int. J. Climatol. 

2009

Della-Marta, P. M., Mathis, H., Frei, C., Liniger, M. A., Kleinn, J. and Appenzeller, C. (2009): The return period of wind storms over Europe. Int. J. Climatol., Vol. 29, 437-459, DOI: doi:10.1002/joc.1794.

Della-Marta, P. M. and Pinto, J. G. (2009): Statistical uncertainty of changes in winter storms over the North Atlantic and Europe in an ensemble of transient climate simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 36, No. L14703, , DOI: 10.1029/2009GL038557.

Mason, S. J. and Weigel, A. P. (2009): A generic forecast verification framework for administrative purposes. Mon. Wea. Rev., Vol. 137, 331-349 

Rotach, M. W., Ambrosetti, P., Ament, F., Appenzeller, C., Arpagaus, M., Bauer, H.-S., Behrendt, A., Bouttier, F., Buzzi, A., Corazza, M., Davolio, S., Denhard, M., Dorninger, M., Fontannaz, L., Frick, J., Fundel, F., Germann, U., Gorgas, T., Hegg, C., Hering, A., Keil, C., Liniger, M. A., Marsigli, C., McTaggart-Cowan, R., Montaini, A., Mylne, K., Ranzi, R., Richard, E., Rossa, A., Santos-Muñoz, D., Schär, C., Seity, Y., Staudinger, M., Stoll, M., Volkert, H., Walser, A., Wang, Y., Werhahn, J., Wulfmeyer, V. and Zappa, M. (2009): Supplement to MAP D-PHASE: Real-Time Demonstration of Weather Forecast Quality in the Alpine Region: Additional Applications of the D-Phase Datasets. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 90, No. 9, 28-32

Rotach, M. W., Ambrosetti, P., Ament, F., Appenzeller, C., Arpagaus, M., Bauer, H.-S., Behrendt, A., Bouttier, F., Buzzi, A., Corazza, M., Davolio, S., Denhard, M., Dorninger, M., Fontannaz, L., Frick, J., Fundel, F., Germann, U., Gorgas, T., Hegg, C., Hering, A., Keil, C., Liniger, M. A., Marsigli, C., McTaggart-Cowan, R., Montani, A., Mylne, K., Ranzi, R., Richard, E., Rossa, A., Santos-Muñoz, D., Schär, C., Seity, Y., Staudinger, M., Stoll, M., Volkert, H., Walser, A., Wang, Y., Werhahn, J., Wulfmeyer, V. and Zappa, M. (2009): MAP D-PHASE: Real-Time Demonstration of Weather Forecast Quality in the Alpine Region. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 90, No. 9, 1321-1336

Weigel, A. P., Liniger, M. A. and Appenzeller, C. (2009): Seasonal ensemble forecasts: Are recalibrated single models better than multi-models?. Mon. Wea. Rev., Vol. 137, No. 4, 1460-1479

Weigel, A. P. and Bowler, N. E. (2009): Comment on "Can multi-model combination really enhance the prediction skill of probabilistic ensemble forecasts?". Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc., Vol. 135, 535-539

2008

Ahrens, B. and Walser, A. 2008: Information-based skill scores for probabilistic forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev. 136, 353-363

Appenzeller, C., Begert, M., Zenklusen, E. and Scherrer, S. C. 2008: Monitoring climate at Jungfraujoch in the high Swiss Alpine region. Science of the Total Environment 391, 262 - 268

Begert, M., Zenklusen, E., Häberli, C., Appenzeller, C. and Klok, L. (2008): An automated procedure to detect discontinuities; preformance assessment and application to a large European climate data set. Meteorol. Z., Vol. 17, No. 5, 663-672

Ferro, C. A. T., Richardson, D. S. and Weigel, A. P. 2008: On the effect of ensemble size on the discrete and continuous ranked probability scores. Meteorol. Appl. 15, 19-24

Hendricks Franssen, H.-J. and Scherrer, S. C. 2008: Freezing of lakes on the Swiss Plateau in the period 1901-2006. International Journal of Climatology 28, 421-433

Hohenegger, C., Walser, A. and Schär, C. (2008): Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations of the August 2005 Alpine flood, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 134 889-904 
 

Jaun, S., Ahrens, B., Walser, A., Ewen, T. and Schaer, C. 2008: A probabilistic view on the August 2005 floods in the upper Rhine catchment. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 8, 281-291

Raible, C. C., Della-Marta, P. M., Schwierz, C., Wernli, H. and Blender, R. (2008): Northern Hemisphere Midlatitude Cyclones: A Comparison of Detection and Tracking Methods and Different Reanalyses. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 136, 880-897

Weigel, A. P., Baggenstos, D., Liniger, M. A., Vitart, F. and Appenzeller, C. 2008: Probabilistic verification of monthly temperature forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev. 136, 5162-5182

Weigel, A. P., Liniger, M. A. and Appenzeller, C. 2008: Can multi-model combination really enhance the prediction skill of probabilistic ensemble forecasts ?. Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc. 134, 241-260

 
2007

Baggenstos, D. 2007: Probabilistic verification of operational monthly temperature fore-casts. Diploma Thesis, Veröffentlichung der MeteoSchweiz Nr. 76, 52pp

Bruegger, R., Studer, S. and Stöckli, R. (2007): Changes in plant development monitored on the individual plant and over geographical area. Schweiz. Z. Forstwes., Vol. 158, No. 7, 221-228

Brunet, M., Jones, P. D., Sigró, J., Saladié, O., Aguilar, E., Moberg, A., Della-Marta, P. M., Lister, D., Walther, A. and López, D. 2007: Temporal and spatial temperature variability and change over Spain during 1850-2003. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres 112, D12117

Della-Marta, P. M., Haylock, M. R., Luterbacher, J. and Wanner, H. 2007: Doubled length of western European summer heatwaves since 1880. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres 112, D15103

Della-Marta, P. M., Luterbacher, J., von Weissenfluh, H., Xoplaki, E., Brunet, M. and Wanner, H. 2007: Summer heat waves over western Europe 1880--2003, their relationship to large scale forcings and predictability. Climate Dynamics 29, 251-275

Della-Marta, P. M. and Beniston, M. 2007: Summer heat waves in western Europe, their past change and future projections. Springer

Kunz, H., S. C. Scherrer, Liniger, M. A. and Appenzeller, C. 2007: The evolution of ERA-40 surface temperatures and total ozone compared to observed Swiss time series. Meteor. Z. 16(2), 171-18

Liniger, M. A., H. Mathis, Appenzeller, C. and Doblas-Reyes, F. J. 2007: Realistic Greenhouse Gas Forcing and Seasonal Forecasts. Geophys Res Lett 34, L04705

Luterbacher, J., Liniger, M. A., Menzel, A., Estrella, N., Della-Marta, P. M., Pfister, C., Rutishauser, T. and Xoplaki, E. 2007: Exceptional European warmth of Autumn 2006 and Winter 2007: Historical context, the underlying dynamics, and its phenological impacts. Geophys Res Lett 34, L12704

Studer, S., Stöckli, R., Appenzeller, C. and Vidale, P. L. 2007: A comparative study of satellite and ground-based phenology. Int J Biometeorol 51(5), 405-414

Verbunt, M., Walser, A., Gurtz, J., Montani, A. and Schär, C. 2007: Probabilistic Flood Forecasting with a Limited-Area Ensemble Prediction System: Selected Case Studies. J. Hydrometeor. 8, 897?909

Weigel, A.P., M. A. Liniger and Appenzeller, C. 2007: The discrete Brier and ranked probability skill scores. Mon. Wea. Rev. 135(1), 118?124
 

Weigel, A. P., Chow, F. K. and Rotach, M. W. 2007: On the nature of turbulent kinetic energy in a steep and narrow Alpine valley. Boundary-Layer Meteorology 123, 177-199

Weigel, A.P., M. A. Liniger and Appenzeller, C. 2007: Generalization of the Discrete Brier and Ranked Probability Skill Scores for Weighted Multimodel Ensemble Forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev. 135(7),  2778?2785

2006

Ansell, T. J., Jones, P. D., Allan, R. J., Lister, D., Parker, D. E., Brunet, M., Moberg, A., Jacobeit, J., Brohan, P., Rayner, N. A., Aguilar, E., Alexandersson, H., Barriendos, M., Brandsma, T., Cox, N. J., Della-Marta, P. M., Drebs, A., Founda, D., Gerstengarbe, F., Hickey, K., Jonsson, T., Luterbacher, J., Nordli, O., Oesterle, H., Petrakis, M., Philipp, A., Rodwell, M. J., Saladie, O., Sigro, J., Slonosky, V., Srnec, L., Swail, V., Garcia-Suarez, A. M., Tuomenvirta, H., Wang, X., Wanner, H., Werner, P., Wheeler, D. and Xoplaki, E. 2006: Daily mean sea level pressure reconstructions for the European-North Atlantic region for the period 1850-2003. Journal Of Climate 19(12) 2717-2742

Della-Marta, P. M. 2006: A method of homogenizing the extremes and mean of daily temperature measurements. Journal Of Climate 19(17), 4179--4197

Moberg, A., Jones, P. D., Lister, D., Walther, A., Brunet, M., Jacobeit, J., Alexander, L. V., Della-Marta, P. M., Luterbacher, J., Yiou, P., Chen, D. L., Tank, A. M. G. K., Saladie, O., Sigro, J., Aguilar, E., Alexandersson, H., Almarza, C., Auer, I., Barriendos, M., Begert, M., Bergstrom, H., Bohm, R., Butler, C. J., Caesar, J., Drebs, A., Founda, D., Gerstengarbe, F. W., Micela, G., Maugeri, M., Osterle, H., Pandzic, K., Petrakis, M., Srnec, L., Tolasz, R., Tuomenvirta, H., Werner, P. C., Linderholm, H., Philipp, A., Wanner, H. and Xoplaki, E. 2006: Indices for daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe analyzed for the period 1901-2000. Journal Of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 111(D22), D22106

Morland, J., Liniger, M. A., Kunz, H., Balin, I., Nyeki, S., Mätzler, C. and Kämpfer, N. 2006: Comparison of GPS and ERA40 IWV in the Alpine region, including correction of GPS observations at Jungfraujoch (3584 m). Journal Of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 111(D4), D04102

Scherrer, S. C., M. Croci-Maspoli, C. Schwierz and Appenzeller, C. 2006: Two dimensional indices of atmospheric blocking and their statistical relationship with winter climate patterns in the Euro-Atlantic region. International Journal Of Climatology 26, 233-249

Scherrer, S. C., Appenzeller, C. and Liniger, M. A. 2006: Temperature trends in Switzerland and Europe: Implications for climate normals. International Journal Of Climatology 26(5), 565-580

Scherrer, S. C. and Appenzeller, C. 2006: Swiss Alpine snow pack variability: major patterns and links to local climate and large-scale flow. Climate Research 32, 187-199

Schmuki, D. and Weigel, A. P. 2006: Saisonale Vorhersage in Tradition und Moderne: Vergleich der "Sommerprognose'' des Zürcher Bööggs mit einem dynamischen Klimamodell. Arbeitsbericht der MeteoSchweiz Nr. 214, 46pp

Schwierz, C., Appenzeller, C., Davies, H. C., Liniger, M. A., Müller, W., Stocker, T. F. and Yoshimori, M. 2006: Challenges posed by and approaches to the study of seasonal-to-decadal climate variability. Climatic Change 79(1-2), 31--63

Walser, A., M. A. Liniger, C. Appenzeller, 2006: Einfluss der Alpen auf das Starkniederschlagsereignis. Contribution to ?Starkniederschlagsereignis August 2005?, Arbeitsbericht MeteoSchweiz Nr. 211. Editors Mathias Rotach, Christof Appenzeller, Peter Albisser. p53-56

Walser, A., Arpagaus, M. and Appenzeller, C. 2006: The Impact of Moist Singular Vectors and Horizontal Resolution on Short-Range Limited-Area Ensemble Forecasts for Two European Winter Storms. Mon. Wea. Rev. 134, 2877-2887

2005

Scherrer, S.C., C. Appenzeller, M. A. Liniger, and C. Schär, 2005: European temperature distribution changes in observations and climate change scenarios, Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 32, L19705, DOI:10.1029/2005GL024108

Mueller, W., C. Appenzeller and C. Schaer, 2005: Probabilistic seasonal prediction of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and its impact on near surface temperature, Climate Dynamics, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-004-0492-z.

Mueller W. A., C. Appenzeller, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, M. A. Liniger 2005: A debiased ranked probability skill score to evaluate probabilistic ensemble forecasts with small ensemble sizes, Journal of Climate, 18 (10), 1513-1523