NCCR Climate II Publications

2010
Fundel, F., Walser, A., Liniger, M. A., Frei, C. and Appenzeller, C. (2010): Calibrated Precipitation Forecasts for a Limited-Area Ensemble Forecast System Using Reforecasts. Mon. Weather Rev., Vol. 138, No. 1, 176-189, DOI: 10.1175/2009MWR2977.1.

Calanca, P., Bolius, D., Weigel, A. P. and Liniger, M. A. (in press): Application of long-range weather forecasts to agricultural decision problems in Europe. J. Agricultural Science

Wüest, M., Frei, C., Altenhoff, A., Hagen, M., Litschi, M. and Schär, C. (in press): A gridded hourly precipitation dataset for Switzerland using rain-gauge analysis and radar-based disaggregation. Int. J. Climatol., DOI: 10.10002/joc.2025.

Scherrer, S. C. (in press): Present-day interannual variability of surface climate in CMIP3 models and its relation to the amplitude of future warming. International Journal Of Climatology

Della-Marta, P. M., Liniger, M. A., Appenzeller, C., Bresch, D. N., Köllner-Heck, P. and Muccione, V. (2010): Improved estimates of the European winter wind storm climate and the risk of reinsurance loss using climate models. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 49, 2092-2120

Fundel, F., Walser, A., Liniger, M. A. and Appenzeller, C. (submitted): The Cost Efficient Calibration of a Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System Using Reforecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev.

Meier, N., Appenzeller, C., Defila, C., Liniger, M. A. and Rotach, M. W. (submitted): Spring Phenology Patterns of the Alpine Region and their Relation to Climate Change. International Journal of Biometeorology

Weigel, A. P., Knutti, R., Liniger, M. A. and Appenzeller, C. (2010): Risks of model weighting in multi-model climate projections. J. Clim. Vol. 23, 4175-4191.

2009

Rotach, M. W., Ambrosetti, P., Ament, F., Appenzeller, C., Arpagaus, M., Bauer, H.-S., Behrendt, A., Bouttier, F., Buzzi, A., Corazza, M., Davolio, S., Denhard, M., Dorninger, M., Fontannaz, L., Frick, J., Fundel, F., Germann, U., Gorgas, T., Hegg, C., Hering, A., Keil, C., Liniger, M. A., Marsigli, C., McTaggart-Cowan, R., Montaini, A., Mylne, K., Ranzi, R., Richard, E., Rossa, A., Santos-Muñoz, D., Schär, C., Seity, Y., Staudinger, M., Stoll, M., Volkert, H., Walser, A., Wang, Y., Werhahn, J., Wulfmeyer, V. and Zappa, M. (2009): Supplement to MAP D-PHASE: Real-Time Demonstration of Weather Forecast Quality in the Alpine Region: Additional Applications of the D-Phase Datasets. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 90, No. 9, 28-32, DOI: 10.1175/2009BAMS2776.2.

Rotach, M. W., Ambrosetti, P., Ament, F., Appenzeller, C., Arpagaus, M., Bauer, H.-S., Behrendt, A., Bouttier, F., Buzzi, A., Corazza, M., Davolio, S., Denhard, M., Dorninger, M., Fontannaz, L., Frick, J., Fundel, F., Germann, U., Gorgas, T., Hegg, C., Hering, A., Keil, C., Liniger, M. A., Marsigli, C., McTaggart-Cowan, R., Montani, A., Mylne, K., Ranzi, R., Richard, E., Rossa, A., Santos-Muñoz, D., Schär, C., Seity, Y., Staudinger, M., Stoll, M., Volkert, H., Walser, A., Wang, Y., Werhahn, J., Wulfmeyer, V. and Zappa, M. (2009): MAP D-PHASE: Real-Time Demonstration of Weather Forecast Quality in the Alpine Region. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 90, No. 9, 1321-1336, DOI: 10.1175/2009BAMS2776.1.

Della-Marta, P. M. and Pinto, J. G. (2009): Statistical uncertainty of changes in winter storms over the North Atlantic and Europe in an ensemble of transient climate simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 36, No. L14703, , DOI: 10.1029/2009GL038557.

Weigel, A. P., Liniger, M. A. and Appenzeller, C. (2009): Seasonal ensemble forecasts: Are recalibrated single models better than multi-models?. Mon. Wea. Rev., Vol. 137, No. 4, 1460-1479, DOI: 10.1175/2008MWR2773.1.

Weigel, A. P. and Bowler, N. E. (2009): Comment on "Can multi-model combination really enhance the prediction skill of probabilistic ensemble forecasts?". Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc., Vol. 135, 535-539

Mason, S. J. and Weigel, A. P. (2009): A generic forecast verification framework for administrative purposes. Mon. Wea. Rev., Vol. 137, 331-349

Della-Marta, P. M., Mathis, H., Frei, C., Liniger, M. A., Kleinn, J. and Appenzeller, C. (2009): The return period of wind storms over Europe. Int. J. Climatol., Vol. 29, 437-459, DOI: doi:10.1002/joc.1794.

2008

Hohenegger, C., Walser, A. and Schär, C. (2008): Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations of the August 2005 Alpine flood, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 134 889-904

Ahrens, B. and Walser, A. 2008: Information-based skill scores for probabilistic forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev. 136, 353-363.

Appenzeller, C., Begert, M., Zenklusen, E. and Scherrer, S. C. 2008: Monitoring climate at Jungfraujoch in the high Swiss Alpine region. Science of the Total Environment 391, 262 - 268.

Ferro, C. A. T., Richardson, D. S. and Weigel, A. P. 2008: On the effect of ensemble size on the discrete and continuous ranked probability scores. Meteorol. Appl. 15, 19-24.

Hendricks Franssen, H.-J. and Scherrer, S. C. 2008: Freezing of lakes on the Swiss Plateau in the period 1901-2006. International Journal of Climatology 28, 421-433.

Jaun, S., Ahrens, B., Walser, A., Ewen, T. and Schaer, C. 2008: A probabilistic view on the August 2005 floods in the upper Rhine catchment. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 8, 281-291.

Liniger, M. A. and Frei, C. 2007. Proceedings from the 5th annual meeting of the Eruopean Meteorological Socieaty: Seesion AW8 - Weather Types Classifications. Tveito, O. E. & M. Pasqui, eds. COST Action 733.

Weigel, A. P., Baggenstos, D., Liniger, M. A., Vitart, F. and Appenzeller, C. 2008: Probabilistic verification of monthly temperature forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev. 136, 5162-5182.

Weigel, A. P., Liniger, M. A. and Appenzeller, C. 2008: Can multi-model combination really enhance the prediction skill of probabilistic ensemble forecasts ?. Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc. 134, 241-260.

2007

Baggenstos, D. 2007: Probabilistic verification of operational monthly temperature fore-casts. Diploma Thesis, Veröffentlichung der MeteoSchweiz Nr. 76, 52pp.

Brunet, M., Jones, P. D., Sigró, J., Saladié, O., Aguilar, E., Moberg, A., Della-Marta, P. M., Lister, D., Walther, A. and López, D. 2007: Temporal and spatial temperature variability and change over Spain during 1850-2003. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres 112, D12117.

Della-Marta, P. M., Haylock, M. R., Luterbacher, J. and Wanner, H. 2007: Doubled length of western European summer heatwaves since 1880. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres 112, D15103. 

Della-Marta, P. M., Luterbacher, J., von Weissenfluh, H., Xoplaki, E., Brunet, M. and Wanner, H. 2007: Summer heat waves over western Europe 1880--2003, their relationship to large scale forcings and predictability. Climate Dynamics 29, 251-275.

Della-Marta, P. M. and Beniston, M. 2007: Summer heat waves in western Europe, their past change and future projections. Springer

Kunz, H., S. C. Scherrer, Liniger, M. A. and Appenzeller, C. 2007: The evolution of ERA-40 surface temperatures and total ozone compared to observed Swiss time series. Meteor. Z. 16(2), 171-181.

Liniger, M. A., H. Mathis, Appenzeller, C. and Doblas-Reyes, F. J. 2007: Realistic Greenhouse Gas Forcing and Seasonal Forecasts. Geophys Res Lett 34, L04705.

Luterbacher, J., Liniger, M. A., Menzel, A., Estrella, N., Della-Marta, P. M., Pfister, C., Rutishauser, T. and Xoplaki, E. 2007: Exceptional European warmth of Autumn 2006 and Winter 2007: Historical context, the underlying dynamics, and its phenological impacts. Geophys Res Lett 34, L12704.

Studer, S., Stöckli, R., Appenzeller, C. and Vidale, P. L. 2007: A comparative study of satellite and ground-based phenology. Int J Biometeorol 51(5), 405-414.

Verbunt, M., Walser, A., Gurtz, J., Montani, A. and Schär, C. 2007: Probabilistic Flood Forecasting with a Limited-Area Ensemble Prediction System: Selected Case Studies. J. Hydrometeor. 8, 897?909.

Weigel, A.P., M. A. Liniger and Appenzeller, C. 2007: The discrete Brier and ranked probability skill scores. Mon. Wea. Rev. 135(1), 118?124. 
 

Weigel, A. P., Chow, F. K. and Rotach, M. W. 2007: On the nature of turbulent kinetic energy in a steep and narrow Alpine valley. Boundary-Layer Meteorology 123, 177-199.

Weigel, A.P., M. A. Liniger and Appenzeller, C. 2007: Generalization of the Discrete Brier and Ranked Probability Skill Scores for Weighted Multimodel Ensemble Forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev. 135(7),  2778?2785.

2006

Ansell, T. J., Jones, P. D., Allan, R. J., Lister, D., Parker, D. E., Brunet, M., Moberg, A., Jacobeit, J., Brohan, P., Rayner, N. A., Aguilar, E., Alexandersson, H., Barriendos, M., Brandsma, T., Cox, N. J., Della-Marta, P. M., Drebs, A., Founda, D., Gerstengarbe, F., Hickey, K., Jonsson, T., Luterbacher, J., Nordli, O., Oesterle, H., Petrakis, M., Philipp, A., Rodwell, M. J., Saladie, O., Sigro, J., Slonosky, V., Srnec, L., Swail, V., Garcia-Suarez, A. M., Tuomenvirta, H., Wang, X., Wanner, H., Werner, P., Wheeler, D. and Xoplaki, E. 2006: Daily mean sea level pressure reconstructions for the European-North Atlantic region for the period 1850-2003. Journal Of Climate 19(12) 2717-2742.

Della-Marta, P. M. 2006: A method of homogenizing the extremes and mean of daily temperature measurements. Journal Of Climate 19(17), 4179--4197.

Moberg, A., Jones, P. D., Lister, D., Walther, A., Brunet, M., Jacobeit, J., Alexander, L. V., Della-Marta, P. M., Luterbacher, J., Yiou, P., Chen, D. L., Tank, A. M. G. K., Saladie, O., Sigro, J., Aguilar, E., Alexandersson, H., Almarza, C., Auer, I., Barriendos, M., Begert, M., Bergstrom, H., Bohm, R., Butler, C. J., Caesar, J., Drebs, A., Founda, D., Gerstengarbe, F. W., Micela, G., Maugeri, M., Osterle, H., Pandzic, K., Petrakis, M., Srnec, L., Tolasz, R., Tuomenvirta, H., Werner, P. C., Linderholm, H., Philipp, A., Wanner, H. and Xoplaki, E. 2006: Indices for daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe analyzed for the period 1901-2000. Journal Of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 111(D22), D22106.

Morland, J., Liniger, M. A., Kunz, H., Balin, I., Nyeki, S., Mätzler, C. and Kämpfer, N. 2006: Comparison of GPS and ERA40 IWV in the Alpine region, including correction of GPS observations at Jungfraujoch (3584 m). Journal Of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 111(D4), D04102.

Scherrer, S. C., M. Croci-Maspoli, C. Schwierz and Appenzeller, C. 2006: Two dimensional indices of atmospheric blocking and their statistical relationship with winter climate patterns in the Euro-Atlantic region. International Journal Of Climatology 26, 233-249.

Scherrer, S. C., Appenzeller, C. and Liniger, M. A. 2006: Temperature trends in Switzerland and Europe: Implications for climate normals. International Journal Of Climatology 26(5), 565-580.

Scherrer, S. C. and Appenzeller, C. 2006: Swiss Alpine snow pack variability: major patterns and links to local climate and large-scale flow. Climate Research 32, 187-199.

Schmuki, D. and Weigel, A. P. 2006: Saisonale Vorhersage in Tradition und Moderne: Vergleich der "Sommerprognose'' des Zürcher Bööggs mit einem dynamischen Klimamodell. Arbeitsbericht der MeteoSchweiz Nr. 214, 46pp.

Schwierz, C., Appenzeller, C., Davies, H. C., Liniger, M. A., Müller, W., Stocker, T. F. and Yoshimori, M. 2006: Challenges posed by and approaches to the study of seasonal-to-decadal climate variability. Climatic Change 79(1-2), 31--63.

Walser, A., M. A. Liniger, C. Appenzeller, 2006: Einfluss der Alpen auf das Starkniederschlagsereignis. Contribution to ?Starkniederschlagsereignis August 2005?, Arbeitsbericht MeteoSchweiz Nr. 211. Editors Mathias Rotach, Christof Appenzeller, Peter Albisser. p53-56.

Walser, A., Arpagaus, M. and Appenzeller, C. 2006: The Impact of Moist Singular Vectors and Horizontal Resolution on Short-Range Limited-Area Ensemble Forecasts for Two European Winter Storms. Mon. Wea. Rev. 134, 2877-2887.

2005

Scherrer, S.C., C. Appenzeller, M. A. Liniger, and C. Schär, 2005: European temperature distribution changes in observations and climate change scenarios, Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 32, L19705, DOI:10.1029/2005GL024108.

Mueller, W., C. Appenzeller and C. Schaer, 2005: Probabilistic seasonal prediction of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and its impact on near surface temperature, Climate Dynamics, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-004-0492-z.

Mueller W. A., C. Appenzeller, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, M. A. Liniger 2005: A debiased ranked probability skill score to evaluate probabilistic ensemble forecasts with small ensemble sizes, Journal of Climate, 18 (10), 1513-1523.